12/16/2023 0 Comments Nfl spread picks week 4A week after the Jets made me look dumb picking against them. This scares the daylights out of me, I'll admit it up front.I'm relying on the Jaguars to cover the spread and win. Jacksonville Jaguars New York Jets (+3.5), Sunday 1:00 p.m. I'll take the Panthers to cover the nine points here, but the Pats still win. I picked the Texans to cover the 13.5 point spread last week and they nearly won outright. But, I just can't shake my lack of trust in the Patriots defense this year. He didn't look great against a bad Saints defense. Yes, Cam hasn't looked anything close to his 2015 MVP form. And that was against a rookie QB in Deshaun Watson who doesn't have a ton of weapons around him. Last week, it took a last-minute miracle drive from Tom Brady to keep them from falling to 1-2. The Patriots defense can't seem to figure it out and there's been zero signs of them doing so. The Texans have been average against the run this year, and I expect the Titans to have success.Ĭarolina Panthers New England Patriots (-9), Sunday 1:00 p.m. The biggest key for me, is the Titans running game that seems to have found a two-headed monster with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. So, while the Titans don't have an excellent group, they are at least slightly better than the Pats have been. While the Texans offense woke up against the Patriots last week, I'm starting to think we overestimated the Patriots defense this year and they are in fact, just a bad defense. The Texans have won three of the last four games between the teams including a 27-20 win at NRG last year with Brock Osweiler at QB. Usually, home field is worth three points of advantage in Vegas, so this feels right that the Titans are actually the slight favorites. The Texans have won three of the last four games between the two teams and they're at home, so I understand them getting the hook in what is essentially a pick 'em. Tennessee Titans Houston Texans (+1.5), Sunday 1:00 p.m. There's no way they're at full strength with the quick turnaround for Thursday night, so I have the Bears keeping this close, but the Packers pulling it out. The biggest question is whether the line will be at full strength as left tackle David Bakhtiari has missed consecutive games and right tackle Bryan Bulaga is dealing with an ankle injury. He's 58-15 now at home after last week's win against the Bengals and this season, he's completing 66 percent of his passes for 624 yards 4 TDs and 2 INTs at home. The Packers struggle running the ball, averaging just 69 yards per game.Īaron Rodgers and company are very good at home however. Their defense has actually been solid this year, particularly against the run, ranking 8th in the league allowing just 83.7 yards per game. In their one road game, away at the Buccaneers in Week 2, they fell apart, turning the ball over four times and losing 29-7. At Soldier Field, they've held the Falcons and Steelers to 40 points, while scoring 40 points themselves. The Bears have been an odd team so far this year. Level of confidence: Heads or Tails.Toss up The games that I'm so confident about that I'd put my life's savings on them if I had a life's savings to wager. No way we can lose - locks of the week: As you can guess, these will be the stone-cold locks of the week. So, we've still got plenty of time to get on a roll and the good news is, we're not that far off from being in the black.Īs usual, we'll reiterate our levels of confidence in the picks. 500 mark last week, going 7-8 ATS (Vikings/Bucs line wasn't listed at publishing time) and 7-9 overall on the week. 0-2 teams fought hard (and largely successfully) to avoid an 0-3 start, which led to some unexpected results that may have left you feeling down about last week's picks. The biggest story was of the continued protests against racial injustice and inequality during the national anthem, that were made larger this past week due to the President's comments. Last week was far from normal in the NFL.
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